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Recession, Confusion and 2009 Election February 14, 2009

Posted by nsworld in Business and Economy.

Elections to the 15th Loka Sabha, is fast approaching in the backdrop of slowing global economic engine, with its cascading effect on India Inc. This time, unlike in the past, you need to take your magnifying glass out, to find out the political issues which may have repercussions on the outcome of polls. Recently concluded elections to the State Assemblies have thrown mixed signals, leaving both the leading National parties in a quandary.


As always, Ambitious Third front project is a non starter, waiting for the, last minute, final decision of the fence sitting parties to complete its formation. On the other hand Mayawati is showing all the signs and confidence of getting a bigger portion of UP pie and there by throwing her hat in to the ring for the coveted post of PM. Will she be the next PM in case of a fractured mandate or will she not? that’s an entirely interesting issue to debate.


Issue less BJP is trying to rake up the Ram Mandir issue again, if its Nagpur proceedings are any indications to go by. INC is also equally confused on the agenda and the Prime Ministerial candidate to project, but some how trying to do an OBAMA act by allowing Rahul Gandhi, to spearhead the entire campaign. Will it project
Rahul Gandhi as its PM candidate and have the courage to do so? Or is it still waiting for the right time? Communists and Mamata, post  NANO episode, are just trying to hold on to their numbers, so that they can play their cards, when time comes.


On a broader level, National parties are confused and clarity less, when it comes to Agenda for the 2009 election, except for Regional parties (Read Maya, Jaya, karunanidhi, Chandrababu and likes) who

are very clear and focused as to increase their tally so as to have greater bargaining power in future,.


Notable and worrying issue is the non clarity of thought and lack of plan of actions in the arsenal of political parties, vis a vis Global economic slowdown and its inevitable impact on India. Recent data by NSO and RBI are not too encouraging. A holistic and non political approach, to steer India out of this trying times is the need of the hour and that should, become the dominant Election issue for the parties aspiring to the throne in Delhi.


In the midst of Slowing down, GDP growth forecast, collateral damage to the Indian outsourcing Industry (from Automobile, garments to  IT/ITES) on account of Global slowdown and the concerns of deflation , manifestos of at least leading National parties are expected to have solid and clear Economic Agenda.


Most frightening thought at this point of time would be, In case of a fractured mandate, what would be the Economic Agenda Of the next coalition? Will it be driven by good economics or the partisan politics to suit the needs of allies? Answer may not be difficult, as `Good Economics is always Bad politics`



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